According to @glassnode, Bitcoin has recovered to $69K following a sharp downside repricing. Current market positioning remains defensive across spot trading, derivatives, and on-chain metrics. The recovery trajectory appears to hinge on renewed spot demand, highlighting the critical role of buyer activity in sustaining momentum.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the current crypto bear market has lasted 122 days (98th percentile) with a 49.6% drawdown, based on his latest dataset (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X). He notes many indicators are comparable to prior bear market bottoms and that there is significant 'duration pain,' but aggregate profit and loss metrics have not fully capitulated, so he believes the final cycle bottom has not yet occurred (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X). He introduced a new cycle bottom probability model to reduce guesswork in timing the low; it has only ticked up slightly and will be updated regularly, indicating the market may be very close but not fully there yet (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X).

According to @glassnode, the 3 day SMA of Net Realized Profit and Loss has fallen to negative 317 million per day, a regime last seen in December 2022, signaling sustained realized losses (source: @glassnode). According to @glassnode, loss realization has regained control while liquidity is fading, indicating weaker on chain conditions (source: @glassnode). According to @glassnode, patience among participants is being tested in this environment (source: @glassnode).

According to @glassnode, the Realized Profit Loss Ratio 90D SMA is trending lower near 1.5 and moving toward 1, indicating progressively thinner crypto liquidity (source: @glassnode). According to @glassnode, a sustained break below 1 has historically coincided with broad capitulation as realized losses dominate profit taking across the market (source: @glassnode). According to @glassnode, any meaningful transition back to a strong rally should be visible in this liquidity sensitive indicator, with a sustained rise above about 5 historically signaling renewed liquidity inflows (source: @glassnode). According to @glassnode, traders should monitor this on chain metric for downside confirmation below 1 and upside confirmation above about 5 as liquidity conditions shift (source: @glassnode).

According to @glassnode, the 90-day SMA Realized Profit/Loss Ratio fell from a peak of 19 to about 1.7, signaling a sharp shift in market demand and rising investor frustration (source: @glassnode). Glassnode notes that current conditions echo low-liquidity phases similar to 2018 and 2022 and urges traders to track this on-chain realized profit loss ratio as a liquidity-sensitive indicator (source: @glassnode). Glassnode adds that a sustained rise above around 5 has historically indicated renewed liquidity inflows and a transition toward stronger rallies, making that threshold a key confirmation level for trend recovery (source: @glassnode).

According to glassnode, when the BTC spot price traded near 87.3K, its on-chain price models showed STH Cost Basis at 96.5K, Active Investors Mean at 87.5K, True Market Mean at 80.7K, and Realized Price at 56.0K; source: x.com/glassnode/status/2015510904897421641 and glassno.de/3XDy2xe. According to glassnode, with the BTC spot later near 97K, these levels shifted to STH Cost Basis 98.4K, Active Investors Mean 87.8K, True Market Mean 81.1K, and Realized Price 56.2K, implying short term holders remain under water while traders may watch resistance near the STH Cost Basis and potential supports around the True Market Mean and Realized Price; source: x.com/glassnode/status/2011861491188687173 and glassno.de/3XDy2xe.

According to @glassnode, Bitcoin rebounded after dipping below 114k USD last week and is climbing toward 121k USD, with this week’s Market Pulse assessing spot markets, derivatives activity, Bitcoin ETFs and on chain indicators to determine whether the recovery can sustain or if profit taking will take over, source: @glassnode on X, Aug 11, 2025. Traders are directed to monitor these four signal clusters as the decision framework around the bounce toward 121k USD to gauge sustained demand versus realized profit taking for near term direction, source: @glassnode on X, Aug 11, 2025.